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What is the Coronavirus Mortality Rate? Worse Than Ebola!

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What is the Coronavirus Mortality Rate?

The Wuhan Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV or COVID-19 mortality rate at epicenter… A study of Wuhan China suggest death rate among patients who were admitted to a hospital receiving top level medical care is 4.3%. Death rate could be higher for third-world countries and areas where an outbreak limits medical equipment used to increase oxygen support.

The World Health Organization updated global mortality rate to 3.4% whereas an Iranian doctor claimed mortality rate to be 5%. Pathologists have said 40-60% of the world’s population 'could' become infected in the 1st year. If that holds true, 172 million people could die in 1 years time, 450 million could sustain some level of organ damage. 

Coronavirus Study (1)

COVID-2019 or Coronavirus mortality rate, termed fatality rate or death rate is defined as ‘the number of deaths in a given area, scaled to a particular population, per unit of time’.

Several different models are being used to calculate the Wuhan 2019-nCoV Novel Coronavirus mortality rate. The World Health Organization (WHO) and several media outlets compare total confirmed cases vs the number of deaths. For example

Total Deaths (2,708) is what percent of confirmed cases (80,593) = 3.36% case fatality rate.

This method of calculation can be misleading since it does not take into account the number of people who are still awaiting their fate.

People infected vs deaths says nothing. It’s who has finished playing the game. 

Mortality rate is the ratio of deaths from COVID-2019 to the total number of confirmed cases, measured over a period of time. It is difficult to measure morality rate because ‘time’ is missing from the equation.

The majority of confirmed cases are awaiting their fate. Until their destiny is known they shouldn’t be included into the equation. Rather, the number of deaths vs people recovered is most important.

Mortality rate will differ depending on the many variables. 

Variables are factors that are subject to variation or change and it affects mortality rate. Population density is one such variable.

Widespread disease in a dense population can overwhelm healthcare abilities and increase mortality rate. Coronavirus is a respiratory illness. If the supply of lifesaving medical equipment used to increase oxygen support runs dry, more die.

The richness of a country is another variable. Third-World countries will experience a higher death rate due to a lack of medical practitioners, resources, medical equipment and medications.

Obesity is a variable. Countries that have a high body bass index could suffer most. Obese people have numerous health issues and it weakens the body’s immune system. America is the #1 obese country. 

Mortality rate should be scaled to a particular area and size of population.

Since different geographical locations have contrasting mortality rates, the death rate should be scaled to a particular area and size of that population, like a city or town, if possible.

This is especially true if a city becomes quarantined. Strict isolation imposed on a city to prevent spread of COVID-2019 improves data accuracy.

Here is the mortality rate (based on known total deaths vs recovered) for cities or areas with emerging outbreaks of Coronavirus. Death rate percentages will change in time.

Mortality Rate South Korea 

Korea has been ranked among the world's top 10 healthiest countries.

DATE DIED LIVED DEATH RATE
2/26 12 22 54.54%
2/27 13 22 59.09%
2/28 13 27 48.14%
2/29 17 27 62.96%
3/01 26 30 86.66%
3/02 28 30 93.33%
3/05 40 135 29.62%
3/06 44 135 32.59%
3/11 61 288 21.18%

Mortality Rate Italy

DATE DIED LIVED DEATH RATE
2/26 12 1 1200%
2/27 17 45 37.77%
2/28 21 46 45.65%
2/29 29 46 63.04%
3/01 34 83 40.96%
3/02 52 149 34.89%
3/03 79 160 49.37%
3/05 148 414 35.74%
3/06 197 523 37.66%
3/08 366 622 58.84%
3/11 827 724 114%

Mortality Rate Iran

A few credible doctors in Iran have said mortality rate in Iran is about 5.0%.

DATE DIED LIVED DEATH RATE
2/26 19 49 38.77%
2/26 26 49 53.06%
2/28 34 73 46.57%
2/29 43 123 23.57%
3/01 54 175 30.85%
3/02 66 291 22.68%
3/03 77 291 26.46%
3/06 124 913 13.58%

*It's believed that Iran is underreporting numbers and will no longer be updated. 

The above video is footage of an Iranian morgue. It shows 50 dead bodies. In Islam dead must be buried in 24 hours. That means Iran is underreporting cases. How many morgues exist in Iran? Are 100s dying daily? Videos are surfacing from Iran that show people dying and suffering in the streets. 

Mortality Rate France

DATE DIED LIVED DEATH RATE
2/26 2 11 18.18%
2/27 2 11 18.18%
2/29 2 12 16.66%
3/02 3 12 25%
3/03 4 12 33.33%
3/05 7 12 58.33%
3/06 9 12 75%
3/11 33 12 275%

Mortality Rate Japan

Japan has been ranked among the world's top 10 healthiest countries.

DATE DIED LIVED DEATH RATE
2/26 2 22 9.09%
2/27 4 22 18.18%
2/28 5 32 15.62%
3/01 6 32 18.75%
3/03 6 43 13.95%
3/06 6 46 13.04%
3/07 12 101 11.88%

Mortality Rate Taiwan

DATE DIED LIVED DEATH RATE
2/26 1 5 20%
2/27 1 6 16.66%
2/28 1 9 11.11%
3/01 1 12 8.33%
3/11 1 17 5.88%

Mortality Rate Diamond Princess Passengers

Monitoring a manageable version of a larger group is good way to study mortality rate. Observing the mortality rate of Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers could give us an accurate death rate for people receiving top level medical care. Final results could take weeks (4/1/2020). The fate of 379 patients has yet to be determined. 

DATE DIED CASES DEATH RATE
1/28 6 705 0.85%
3/11 7 705 0.99%
3/21 8 712 1.1%

Diamond Princess passengers have received the highest level medical care. More than 35 patients have been listed as critical condition at one time or another. In an environment where medical aid was in short supply or hospitals are overwhelmed, which is happening across the world, it can be assumed that many of those that spent time in the ICU unit could have died. This could drastically increase mortality rate.

Mainstream medias method to calculate COVID-2019 mortality rate.

Mainstream media and most health organizations determine mathematically the amount of confirmed cases vs deaths to gauge death rate. 

The technique can cause percentages to vary over a period of time. At the beginning of the outbreak, Hubei, China health officials worked hard to control the outbreak. Fewer people were infected and doubling rate occurred slowly. Mortality rate during this time would have been more accurate.

As doubling rate sped up, it created a lag time where a large quantity of people’s fate remained undetermined. During this time mortality rate percentage would have decreased.

When the virus peaked in Hubei, meaning the rate of infections decreased, the lag time (the fate of the people) would  have narrowed—causing mortality rate to become more accurate again.

Mortality Rate Wuhan/Hubei, China

DATE CASES LIVED DIED D/RATE
01/23 444 28 17 3.8%
01/24 544 31 24 4.4%
01/25 1,052 42 52 4.9%
01/26 1,423 44 76 5.3%
01/27 2,714 47 100 3.6%
01/28 3,554 80 125 3.5%
01/29 4,586 90 162 3.5%
01/30 5,806 116 204 3.5%
01/31 7,153 116 249 3.48%
02/01 9,074 215 294 3.24%
02/02 11,177 295 350 3.13%
02/03 13,522 398 414 3.06%
02/04 16,678 522 479 2.87%
02/26 65,187 20,951 2,615 4.01%
02/27 65,596 23,383 2,641 4.02%
02/28 66,337 28,925 2,727 4.11%
03/01 67,103 33,757 2,803 4.17%
03/02 67,217 36,167 2,834 4.21%
03/03 67,332 38,556 2,871 4.26%
03/04 67,466 40,479 2,902 4.30%
03/05 67,592 41,966 2,931 4.33%
03/06 67,666 43.468 2,959 4.37%
03/07 67,707 45,011 2,986 4.41%
03/08 67,743 46,443 3,007 4.43%
03/09 67,760 46,590 3,024 4.46%
3/11 67,773 49,134 3,046 4.49%
3/20 67,800 58,943 3,139 4.6%

See table above. If the numbers coming out of Hubei China are accurate, 4.46% would be an accurate mortality rate, and it could indicate global mortality rate. However, 17,146 cases exist and their fate has yet to be determined. When fully contained Hubei's estimated mortality rate could reach 5.25%.

What is COVID-2019 long-term mortality rate?

Doctors encouraged the public to take better care of themselves to increase their chances of surviving. They have recommended…

  • If you smoke, stop smoking
  • If you are obese, lose weight
  • If you have high-blood pressure, take your medicine
  • If you have Type-2 Diabetes, take your medicine
  • Consume a balanced diet

Doctors are encouraging people to live a healthier life because the coronavirus is more likely to kill you if you are unhealthy.

Moreover, some doctors have said that 11% of patients will develop some level of organ damage, such as heart or lung damage. If 11% of the population develop organ damage upon initial infection, will their bodies be strong enough to survive reinfection?

Their greed will be the death of you

Is the Flu more deadly than Corona Virus?

[Above Image] This media outlet tried to compare Influenza to COVID-19. They (corporations and the rich) are worried that if the masses panic, the stock market will crash, and it will lead to civil unrest or worse.

This media outlet attempted to use this image as a way to prove Influenza is more deadly, and of course Influenza has killed more people. It is already established throughout the world.

When COVID-19 has spread across earth, its mortality rate will far exceed Influenza. Bookmark this page and compare the death toll of COVID-19 to that image in one year time. Then hold this enemy of America responsible.

And for reference, this image implies Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.05% whereas COVID-19 is 3.4 to 4.4%. 

 

 

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12 thoughts on “What is the Coronavirus Mortality Rate? Worse Than Ebola!

  1. I did the same thing as you for all the the patients who had finished their course of illness with the older numbers. Jan. 23-25 gave 45.6% mortality. And Jan 23-26 gave 48.8%.

    Of course reinfection is a possibility, so no one can really know. If I survive twice and die the third time, is my own mortality rate is 34%. How does that effect the end total? (Though I certainly doubt it’s enough to sway the figures.)

  2. 87% who get it have mild symptoms. We have seen that in the west. 100,000 of 11 million Wuhan Chinese are infected but cases falling as spring approaches and the bug loses to warm sunshine, hence the flu season. Cold and dry air and indoors is how the bug spreads as it hangs in the air. It hates heat, wind, rain. 20% infected have serious enough illness to be hospitalized. 20% of those die. The virus refuses to ravage other cities in China. Is this a bio weapon killing Han Chinese? Its basically a flu kill ratio , if we did not have a vaccine for that flu strain.

  3. I read the average death takes 15-21 days after infection. Confirmed cases started skyrocketing in China 30 days ago. Statistically speaking the death toll should be dramatically increasing at this point, and get much worse over the coming weeks. So why is it only 38 deaths were recorded on Feb. 26? Only 64 total deaths recorded on Feb. 25th? The death toll is lowering instead of rising. China must be hiding the real death toll. Which could mean things are a lot worse than we thought.

  4. The formula used to to determine Novel coronavirus case fatality rate is cumulative current total deaths vs current confirmed cases. These figures are so flawed that people will underestimate the virus real potential and get very sick or die unnecessarily. Media needs to stop saying Influenza is more deadly. Let this new virus run its course and and I bet COVID will be more deadly. Everything starts somewhere.

  5. This is so analogous to when a tropical storm or hurricane is forecasted to hit Miami when it is still at least a week out. There is just not enough information yet to make any accurate forecast. It could die out before landfall. It could get stronger and hit Miami. It could turn away and miss the coast all together. There is just not enough information yet to tell how this will affect the US.

    1. I agree we need to wait and see the extent of severity. But like the article said, watch closely if more Diamond passengers die. Only 10 of 705 have recovered so far. It’s a controlled group (as long as government doesn’t lie) and it will tell us a lot. And I literally had the eye of Andrew go over me. This hurricane may be 2 weeks out but we already know it’s gonna be a direct hit in every major city.

  6. There are some miscalculation here. The biggest problem to calculate mort rate is that some people may have it but show no signs, and such are not tested. Excluding these people will overestimate the mort rate. You cannot take a cruise as your sample: passengers tend to be the retired = old and therefore more vulnerable. however they are also wealthy so better health and have intense care. You cannot talk about a general mort rate as it is clear this hits the old and sick more strongly. Pls don’t spread false info. The death rate cannot be just death/recover, that’s nonsense. I agree there is still too early but stop scaring people. Just give practical advice what people can really do:
    Good hygiene
    Arrange work from home, if possible
    Protect the vulnerable in the family
    Avoid non essential travel

    1. China said most people don’t show symptoms. I haven’t seen any proof of this. They said there are 2 strains of COVID and that the less severe mutation affected cities outside of Wuhan. China lies a lot. We should assume they under reported mortality rate. We should go by the numbers until proven otherwise. 1,353 people in Guangdong China infected, 1,273 recovered and only 8 dead? In America 8 have recovered and 26 dead? We should assume the worst for now. To many countries lying or there are so many dead they stopped counting bodies.

  7. You’re assuming the death toll will end up higher than seasonal flu because you think it has a higher death rate, but that’s not necessarily so. The 85k cases was based off lab tests, but they’re only testing those hospitalised or seriously ill. The true case figure will be much higher, meaning the death rate is much lower.
    The 32 million flu cases is an estimation of how many people in the world catch it and isn’t based off lab tests.

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